Regardless of who wins the upcoming US presidential election, Beijing is unlikely to encounter a China-friendly administration in Washington
As election day in the United States draws nearer following a hugely divisive campaign season, one of the few things Democrats and Republicans largely agree on is continuing to apply economic and strategic pressure on China.
During his presidency, current Republican candidate Donald Trump kicked off a trade war with China. The administration of President Joe Biden has largely continued a tough stance on Beijing, with policies aimed at Chinese exports and access to critical technologies.
It is unclear what track on China Democratic candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris would take if she were to win on November 5, however, she is largely expected to align with her predecessor, albeit with subtle differences.
Under these conditions, some experts say China holds no favoritism as to who will occupy the White House starting in January 2025.
Diao Daming, the deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, told DW that the current trajectory of strategic competition between the US and China will likely continue after the election.
He added that if there is “no shift” fundamentally in the US-China rivalry, neither candidate’s victory will “bring significant benefits to China.”
Continued containment of China
On the campaign trail, both Trump and Harris have emphasized containing Beijing’s strategic ambitions in Asia and responding to continued aggression towards Taiwan.
In a recent interview with the Wall Steet Journal, Trump said he would impose 200% tariffs on Chinese goods if China “went into Taiwan.”
He added that if he were president again, China would think twice about a blockade of Taiwan because President Xi Jinping, “respects me and knows I am … crazy.”
On the economic front, Trump has proposed plans for blanket tariffs of 10% to 20% on virtually all imports, as well as tariffs of 60% or more on goods from China. He claims these measures would boost US manufacturing.
During Trump’s previous presidency from 2017 to 2021, he introduced waves of tariffs on Chinese goods. China responded with its own tariffs, mainly targeting agricultural goods from the US like soybeans.
“Trump initiated the strategic competition with China, while Biden has put it into practice over the past four years,” Diao said.
“If Trump were to return to office, it would mean the continuation of Biden’s agenda with Trump’s preference and pacing. It would be a very complicated situation,” he added.
Harris’ blank slate
Since Harris began her presidential campaign in July after Biden dropped out of the race, her limited statements on China have included promising to ensure that “America, not China, wins the competition for the twenty-first century.”
Diao said it could be harder to predict Harris’s actions toward China if elected president. “How she’ll handle foreign affairs is unclear to the whole world.”
She is also expected to maintain the policies imposed under the Biden administration, including tariffs on Chinese imports, and blocking China’s access to critical semiconductor technology.
In September, Biden finalized tariff hikes on certain Chinese-made products, with the tariff rate going up to 100% on electric vehicles. The European Union has also applied similar tariffs, drawing rebuke from Beijing.
At the same time, Biden has sought more open communication with China. He hosted President Xi in California for a summit in 2023.
In September, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La security summit in Singapore, the US and China held “commander level” military-to-military talks to “maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition.”
The Biden administration has also bolstered its regional alliances with the Philippines, Japan, Australia and India.
Bejing could prefer Trump’s isolationism
Wu Qiang, a Chinese independent political commentator and a former lecturer at Tsinghua University in Beijing, told DW that China may prefer Trump to Harris.
“Trump returning to the White House would be a major advantage for China, as it would signify deeper divisions within American democracy,” he said.
“Amid division with Europe and America’s global allies, the US will revert to a new form of isolationism, which was already evident during Trump’s previous term,” he added.
By promoting an “America First” policy and withdrawing from several international agreements, the former president was known to embrace isolationism.
rump also takes a transactional view of strategic alliances, threatening to withdraw support from Nato in Europe and US allies in Asia like South Korea and Japan for not contributing more to defense.
However, Elizabeth Freund Larus, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, argues that the geopolitical landscape has destabilized considerably since Trump’s first presidency, and Trump’s foreign policy officials will therefore push him to engage with US allies.
“I do not think that Trump is going to turn back the clock and stop working with these alliances that are taking a firmer shape,” Larus told DW.
Harris less hawkish than Biden?
In this case, Chinese leaders might prefer a Harris victory from the standpoint of foreign and defense policy, Larus said, as she is more likely to “play ball with China the way her predecessors — other than Trump — have.”
“When Biden was the Democratic Party choice. it was tougher on China. It almost seemed like Trump and Biden were proving which was tougher,” Larus said.
“You don’t get that sentiment from Harris. Her policy agenda is much more domestic-focused,” she added.
On the Taiwan issue, the vice president is also considered to be more reserved about explicitly expressing military support for the island than Biden, who has indicated several times that US forces would defend Taiwan if there was an “unprecedented attack.”
In comparison to Trump, Larus said, Harris would be “more likely to engage and want to get the US-China relationship back on some type of a track.”
“If I was the Chinese Communist Party, I would prefer the one who’s going to engage. I can come over and say ‘we’re going to carry out market reforms, and we want a peaceful resolution to the Taiwan issue. Let’s have some cocktails,” Larus said.
